Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t
上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.
On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.
We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦
year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.
We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦
uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.
Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦
According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.
上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n
ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h
as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.
We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t
here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信
Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.
The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信
r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc
ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.
That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d
ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信
rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the
Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.
fever outbreaks, affecting all 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions on the mainland, since the country’s first reported outbr
eak in Shenyang, Liaoning province, in August, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
This resulted in more than 1 million pigs being slaughtered to prevent and control the disease, which is deadly to pigs but does no
t affect people. The ministry has called for intensified research and development to expedite the availability of va
ccines for disease prevention and control, but admitted difficulties due to the complex nature of the virus.
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork, with an annual produc
tion of 700 million pigs. Pork accounts for 62 percent of meat consumption in China, and su
ions of a culture of sexism and bullying at Uber and US Department of Justice investigations. After a series of embarrassments, Kalanick was forced to res
ign in 2017 by a group of investors. Uber then hired Khosrowshahi to lead the company.
Uber has said it has the potential to grow not just in the cab hailing business, but also as a “sup
erapp” to provide logistic services, such as grocery and food delivery, organizing freight tra
nsportation, and even financial services, much like Grab, its Southeast Asian counterpart.
But market experts have struggled to find value in a company that has consistently posted los
ses, and warned that it may never be profitable. “The business is unprofitable, new entrants can enter the ma
rket, there is potential regulatory risk, and it is very price sensitive. What is there to like about this opportunity?” Ro
bert Johnson, professor of finance at Heider College of Business, Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska said.
Huawei ranking first, according to a report by IPlytics, an authorized patent data company.
Chinese companies topped the list for most 5G Standards-Essential Patents applications in communicat
ion systems by the end of April, accounting for 34 percent of the world’s total, The Paper reported Wednesday, citing the report.
Chinese tech giant Huawei has taken a leading role by owning 15 percent of Stan
dards-Essential Patents, according to the report Who Is Leading the 5G Patent Race?
5G SEPs are patents any company will have to use when implementing standar
dized 5G technology and no one can avoid them, giving them key value among all patents.
Three industrial leaders from China were included in the top 10 list of 5
G SEP family owners, with Huawei taking the crown, and ZET Corp and China Academy of
Telecommunications Technology grabbing fifth and ninth places, respectively.
ch and field development resources to expand in the Chinese market over the coming years, he said.
Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said last month that the two countries’ negotiating teams are hashing out the text of a deal, including an enforcem
ent mechanism, based on mutual respect and benefit. Both countries, the world’s two biggest ec
onomies, have been intensifying their consultations and aiming to break the deadlock in a timely manner.
In the ninth round of trade consultations, negotiators discussed tec
hnology transfers, protection of intellectual property rights, non-tariff measures, the s
ervice sector, agriculture, trade imbalances and enforcement mechanisms.
Trade between China and the US amounted to 815.86 billion yuan ($121.7 billion) in t
he first quarter of the year, an 11 percent year-on-year decline, according to the General Administration of Cus
toms. In March, Sino-US trade climbed 0.1 percent to 291.35 billion yuan, according to the administration.