Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t
上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.
On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.
We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦
year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.
We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦
uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.
Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦
According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.
上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n
ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h
as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.
We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t
here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信
Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.
The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信
r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc
ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.
That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d
ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信
rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the
Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.
for insurance companies in the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta region, with transportation as a top priority.
上海夜网女神会所”Insurance capital can help the government to boost domestic consumption. A co
mprehensive transportation network connecting railway, subway, ports and even airports has上海夜网
been a longstanding goal of many cities in this area. This is where insurers can play a big role,” he said.
Elderly care is another sector where insurance companies can find big opportunities, said Ko
ng. In early June, CPIC opened an elderly care community in Hangzhou, and is about to launch a new one in Nanjing.上海夜网女神会所
“The idea is to let the senior citizens in Shanghai enjoy quality elderly care services in other parts of the Yangtze River Delta region. Mor
e room in Shanghai can thus be given to ambitious young entrepreneurs to set up their own businesses,” he said.
The integration of risk prevention schemes for peasants in the Y
angtze River Delta region is one more area where insurers can focus on, said Kong.上海夜网
Peasants’ income can be largely increased via products such
as cost insurance, yield insurance, income insurance or one-stop insurance service.
He Haifeng, director of the Institute of Financial Policy, which is a part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the int上海夜网女神会所
egrated development of the delta region presents many latent challenges. So, more efforts should be made to r
eform finance and tax areas, to reduce fees in various fields, and improve the overall business environment.
Work on a new film based on a script by novelist Liu Cixin, the first Asian ever to win a global sci-fi literature’s top honor Hugo Award, has just begun.上海夜网女神会所
The movie called Mo Ri Zheng Jiu (The Rescue on the Last Day) will star award-winning Hong Kong actor Nick Cheung Ka-f
ai and veteran actor Hu Jun, best known for the first Sino-Kazakh coproduction The Composer.
Director Shen Yue says that Liu wrote the script before he started to write The Three-Bod
y Problem, which won the Hugo Award for Best Novel in August 2015. The book was first published in 2006.
Zhu Jin, the curator of Beijing Planetarium, will be the film’s chief science consultant.
At least four deaths have been blamed on crowding during the climbs, Agence France-Presse reported.
People should be well prepared to handle Qomolangma’s traffic jams which are common phenomena along climbing paths, said alpinists who had reached the summit.
“Although the news about the jam on Qomolangma this year has gone viral, people should understand that it happens every year during the brief cl
imbing window. Knowing what to do when climbers jam the narrow paths should be incl
uded in their training well in advance,” said Ma Liyamu, who reached the top of Qomolangma, the world’s ta
llest mountain at 8,848 meters, on May 22 and was also held up by the crowds on her descent.
She is the leader of a mountaineering team of three Chinese women w
ho scaled Qomolangma. They launched their expedition from Nepal, which issued 381 cli
mbing permits for the season that concludes this week. Nepal’s permits this season cost $11,000 each.
FTSE Russell, a leading global multi-asset index, data and analytics provider, said Satur
day that it will add Chinese A shares to its widely-tracked global benchmarks next month.
The addition will be officially effective after the close of share markets on June 24.
According to the plan of FTSE Russell, this move marks the first stage of incorporatin
g Chinese shares into its indexes. In this stage, 1,097 Chinese stocks, or 20 percent of A shares, will be bro
ught into the indexes, drawing an expected $10 billion from passive investors.
FTSE Russell will add 40 percent of A shares to its indexes in September, and another 40 percent in March next year.
fever outbreaks, affecting all 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions on the mainland, since the country’s first reported outbr
eak in Shenyang, Liaoning province, in August, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
This resulted in more than 1 million pigs being slaughtered to prevent and control the disease, which is deadly to pigs but does no
t affect people. The ministry has called for intensified research and development to expedite the availability of va
ccines for disease prevention and control, but admitted difficulties due to the complex nature of the virus.
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork, with an annual produc
tion of 700 million pigs. Pork accounts for 62 percent of meat consumption in China, and su