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Expectation of Fed ra上海乌托邦s an over-reaction

Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t

上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.

On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.

We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦

year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.

We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦

uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.

Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦

According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.

上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n

ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h

as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.

We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t

here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信

Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.

The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信

r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc

ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.

That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d

ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信

rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the

Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.

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ing addresses the 1上海会所女神会所 Council of Heads of

President calls 上海会所女神会所on members to support regional links to Belt and Road Initiative

Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should follow the trend of economic globalization and

build the SCO into a community with a shared future, President Xi Jinping said on Friday.

Xi made the remark while delivering a speech at the 19th

meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan’s capital.

SCO members should promote the multilateral trading system, buil

d an open global economy and put forward more policies to facilitate trade and investment, he said.

Xi proposed making full use of cooperation platforms such as the China Intern

ational Import Expo to promote the openness, exchanges and integration of regional economies.

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By late April, China had been hit by 129 African swine

 fever outbreaks, affecting all 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions on the mainland, since the country’s first reported outbr

eak in Shenyang, Liaoning province, in August, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

This resulted in more than 1 million pigs being slaughtered to prevent and control the disease, which is deadly to pigs but does no

t affect people. The ministry has called for intensified research and development to expedite the availability of va

ccines for disease prevention and control, but admitted difficulties due to the complex nature of the virus.

China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork, with an annual produc

tion of 700 million pigs. Pork accounts for 62 percent of meat consumption in China, and su

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Technology teams from Shanghai universities start

businesses in Suzhou, Zhejiang province. Things like this happen a lot now,” Wang said.

“And plans to build data infrastructure, such as cloud computi

ng and data centers, have been made in the integrated development of the region.”

The report also surveyed AI education in China, which has started at all levels. More tha

n 30 universities have opened schools on AI, and 75 established AI majors or interdisciplinary majors with AI.

China’s first high school textbook on AI was published by East China Normal Universit

y last year, and 40 high schools nationwide have participated in a pilot program on teaching AI to their students.

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Trump must turn over financial records to House, judge rules

A federal judge in Washington ruled Monday against President Donald Trump in a financial records dispute with Congress.

US District Judge Amit Mehta, who was appointed by President Barack Obama, said T

rump cannot block a House subpoena of financial records. He sai

d the Democratic-led House committee seeking the information has said it belie

ves the documents would help lawmakers consider strengthening ethics and disclosure laws, among other things.

The committee’s reasons were “valid legislative purposes,” Mehta said, and it was not for hi

m “to question whether the Committee’s actions are truly motivated by political considerations.”

The decision comes amid a widespread effort by the White House and the preside

nt’s lawyers to refuse to cooperate with congressional requests for information and records.

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Uber has also weathered controversies including revelati

ions of a culture of sexism and bullying at Uber and US Department of Justice investigations. After a series of embarrassments, Kalanick was forced to res

ign in 2017 by a group of investors. Uber then hired Khosrowshahi to lead the company.

Uber has said it has the potential to grow not just in the cab hailing business, but also as a “sup

erapp” to provide logistic services, such as grocery and food delivery, organizing freight tra

nsportation, and even financial services, much like Grab, its Southeast Asian counterpart.

But market experts have struggled to find value in a company that has consistently posted los

ses, and warned that it may never be profitable. “The business is unprofitable, new entrants can enter the ma

rket, there is potential regulatory risk, and it is very price sensitive. What is there to like about this opportunity?” Ro

bert Johnson, professor of finance at Heider College of Business, Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska said.

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Govt should accelerate tax cuts to invigorate economy, pre

Premier Li Keqiang urged government departments to speed up the implement

ation of tax reductions to invigorate the country’s economy, amid rising uncertainties about growth on Friday.

Li was speaking with entrepreneurs from the manufacturing, constructio

n and service sectors at the Zhongnanhai leadership compound in Beijing.

The businesspeople said they have received benefits from the tax reduction measures in t

he past months, after the measures were introduced by Li in the Government Work Report in March. Th

ey also offered advice on how to further ease the tax burden on businesses.

After hearing their opinions, Li called tax reduction a great decision

made by the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council. It has boosted

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hinese companies lead in global 5G patent applications with

Huawei ranking first, according to a report by IPlytics, an authorized patent data company.

Chinese companies topped the list for most 5G Standards-Essential Patents applications in communicat

ion systems by the end of April, accounting for 34 percent of the world’s total, The Paper reported Wednesday, citing the report.

Chinese tech giant Huawei has taken a leading role by owning 15 percent of Stan

dards-Essential Patents, according to the report Who Is Leading the 5G Patent Race?

5G SEPs are patents any company will have to use when implementing standar

dized 5G technology and no one can avoid them, giving them key value among all patents.

Three industrial leaders from China were included in the top 10 list of 5

G SEP family owners, with Huawei taking the crown, and ZET Corp and China Academy of

Telecommunications Technology grabbing fifth and ninth places, respectively.

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China has exercised great restraint and goodwill in

trying to maintain stable relations with the US,” he said.

Li Haidong, a professor of US studies at China Foreign Affairs Universi

ty, said Washington has pushed a hard line in relations with Beijing in recent years.

“The Taiwan question is much more complicated and nonnegotiable,” Li said.

“If the US side continues to misinterpret the one-­China policy, it will irreparably damage Sino­-US ties,” he warned.

The US Senate will have to vote on the act before it can become law. The time of the vote is unknown.

“The consensus among US officials is to be tough on China, and room for rational option

s is rapidly shrinking as overconfidence and rash actions become the new norm,” he said.

khlee.com.cn

The company will consider adding employees, researc

ch and field development resources to expand in the Chinese market over the coming years, he said.

Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said last month that the two countries’ negotiating teams are hashing out the text of a deal, including an enforcem

ent mechanism, based on mutual respect and benefit. Both countries, the world’s two biggest ec

onomies, have been intensifying their consultations and aiming to break the deadlock in a timely manner.

In the ninth round of trade consultations, negotiators discussed tec

hnology transfers, protection of intellectual property rights, non-tariff measures, the s

ervice sector, agriculture, trade imbalances and enforcement mechanisms.

Trade between China and the US amounted to 815.86 billion yuan ($121.7 billion) in t

he first quarter of the year, an 11 percent year-on-year decline, according to the General Administration of Cus

toms. In March, Sino-US trade climbed 0.1 percent to 291.35 billion yuan, according to the administration.

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